Shadow Price

Source: notebooks/Phase1/Gold Shadow Price.ipynb · Data as of 2026-09-30 · Computed 2026-10-15 14:51:23 in 7.0 s

Gold is 50% of the 40% shadow price ($8,278)

Gold is 81% of the 25% shadow price ($5,174) and 50% of the 40% ($8,278). Bar: share of the US monetary base that US gold covers at market price.

Gold (fix) $4,176 30 Sep 2026

25% shadow price $5,174 gold = 81%

40% shadow price $8,278 gold = 50%

100% shadow price $20,694 gold = 20%

The shadow price is the gold price at which US official gold (261.5 Moz) would back 25%, 40% or 100% of the US monetary base ($5.41 trillion, FRED BOGMBASE with a 60-day lag).

On 30 Sep 2026 gold was $4,176: 81% of the 25% shadow price, 50% of the 40% and 20% of the 100%.

Gold was last above the 40% shadow price on 13 Dec 1988, and above the 25% on 11 Mar 2026.

Gold vs shadow prices

Shadow price = backing share x US monetary base / US gold reserves (Bloomberg 111.046 Index). Both inputs lagged 60 days. Add more bands: click 5% or 10% in the legend, or type any other share in the box and press Add.