Gold Compass
Last full refresh 2026-10-15 14:55:30 Status

Markets

Source: notebooks/Phase1/Gold Markets.ipynb · Data as of 2026-10-14 · Computed 2026-10-15 14:51:12 in 90.3 s

Gold in China is 22 USD an ounce above London, and CFTC producers are net -18,984 contracts, up from -28,275 on 08 Sep 2026

China premium 7d +0.04pp 30d +0.13pp
Percentile 51 +22 USD/oz (+0.53%)
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100

Shanghai gold minus the London AM fix (12 Oct 2026): +22.12 USD per ounce, +0.53% of London. Bar: percentile of the % gap vs its history since 2010.

US futures premium 7d -0.41pp 30d -2.00pp
Percentile 15 -2.76% a year
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100

COMEX futures basis over spot, annualized, minus the 3-month T-bill. Bar: percentile vs its history since 2010.

CFTC producers 4 reports +9,291
Percentile 95 -18,984 contracts
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100

Net futures position of producers, merchants, processors and users (the hedgers), CFTC report of 06 Oct 2026. Bar: percentile vs its history since 2006.

Central bank reserves total 31,867 t
Percentile 81 +358 t in 12 months
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100

Official gold reserves of all countries reported to the IMF, change over the 12 months to Sep 2026. Bar: percentile vs every 12-month change since 1970.

Gold ETF holdings level 101.1 Moz
Percentile 73 +1.08 Moz in 30 days
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100

Change in the 30 days to 13 Oct 2026. Bar: percentile vs every monthly change since 2003.

COMEX gold stocks level 23.5 Moz
Percentile 0 -3.87 Moz in 30 days
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100

Change in the 30 days to 13 Oct 2026. Bar: percentile vs every monthly change since 1992.

SHFE gold warrants level 3.7 Moz
Percentile 88 +0.04 Moz in 30 days
0-20 20-40 40-60 60-80 80-100

Change in the 30 days to 13 Oct 2026. Bar: percentile vs every monthly change since 2008.

GC open to close +14.7% since 20 Aug 2025; overlaps the other two
London fix +8.4% AM to PM fix since 20 Aug 2025
Asia +13.6% PM fix to next AM fix since 20 Aug 2025

The US gold premium is -2.76% on 13 Oct 2026. It is the COMEX futures basis over spot, annualized, minus the 3-month T-bill.

Gold in China is 22.12 USD per ounce above the London AM fix (+0.53%, 12 Oct 2026).

CFTC report of 06 Oct 2026, net positions: money manager +114,820, other +86,759, producer -18,984, swap -218,616, non reportable +36,022.

Central banks hold 31,867 t of gold (Sep 2026), +358 t over 12 months. Gold ETFs hold 101.1 million ounces (13 Oct 2026).

Since 20 Aug 2025 the cumulative gold return was +14.7% from the GC open to the GC close, +8.4% from the London AM fix to the PM fix and +13.6% from the PM fix to the next AM fix.

Central bank gold reserves

Official gold reserves reported to the IMF, in tonnes, stacked by group: United States, Eurozone, China, BRICS before 2024 (Russia, India, South Africa, Brazil), BRICS added since, and the rest of the world. Black line: world total. Orange: gold price (hidden log axis; hover to read it). Hover for each group.

Premiums and discounts

Pick a chart. US PD = log(futures / spot) annualized over the days left to the active contract, minus log(1 + 3m T-bill). China PD (gold) = Shanghai gold price in USD per ounce minus the London AM fix; China PD (silver) is the same gap in % of London. Gold charts: daily premium, its 63-day EWM (dark line, no hover) and futures volume (blue, 7-day EWM). Black: XAU or silver (log). The y axes are hidden as in the notebook: hover to read values.

Positioning and demand

Pick a chart. CFTC: net futures position of each trader category (gold and silver: disaggregated report; bitcoin: financial futures report). SHFE: long and short positions of futures-company members and of the rest. Demand: World Gold Council tonnes per quarter by category; "other" is the gap to total demand (technology is not among the tickers). Positive values stack above zero, negative below. Black: price (hidden log axis; hover to read it).

Gold inventories

Pick a chart. Troy ounces held in COMEX warehouses, in all gold ETFs, and as SHFE warehouse warrants (reported in kg, converted at 32.15 oz per kg). Line: level. Bars: change over each month (hidden axis; hover to read it). Orange: XAU (hidden log axis).

Gold return by trading session

Growth of 1 from the start of the visible window (default 20 Aug 2025, as in the notebook); the box shows each session's return over the window. Pick another start with the slider under the chart, the range buttons or a drag. comex = GC open to close; fix = London AM fix to PM fix; shfe = previous PM fix to AM fix. The last day's return is set to zero, as in the notebook. The GC bar also covers the London AM-to-PM window and part of the PM-to-AM window (checked on 2026 data), so comex overlaps the other two.