Equity Crash
In the 11 SPX crashes since 1971 the median gold drawdown was -15.5% (worst -53.4%); the SPX is 0.1% below its record close
Since 1971 the SPX fell 15% or more from a record high 11 times.
Inside those episodes the median gold drawdown was -15.5%, the recency-weighted average -14.9% and the worst -53.4% (Volcker, 1980).
The SPX closed 0.1% below its record close of 06 Oct 2026.
Gold through the SPX crash episodes
Top: gold (data/2. XAU.csv, log scale). Bottom: SPX drawdown from its running high.
SPX crashes since 1971 (drawdown of 15% or more) and gold
Episode window: from the SPX peak until the SPX recovers that peak or 12 months after the SPX trough, whichever comes first. Gold max drawdown and gold trough are measured inside that window. Days for gold to recover: from its trough back to its pre-fall high, searched beyond the window. Gold at SPX trough: gold return from the SPX peak to the SPX trough.
| SPX peak | SPX trough | SPX recovery | SPX drawdown | Days peak to trough | Days SPX to recover | Gold max drawdown | Gold trough | Days gold to recover | Gold at SPX trough | Gold 6m after SPX trough | Gold 12m after SPX trough | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Episode | ||||||||||||
| Oil shock / Nifty Fifty | 1973-01 | 1974-10 | 1980-07 | -48.2% | 630 | 2,114 | -32.9% | 1975-09 | 1,032 | 138.8% | 13.6% | -10.3% |
| Volcker | 1980-11 | 1982-08 | 1982-11 | -27.1% | 622 | 83 | -53.4% | 1982-06 | 8,711 | -44.2% | 46.2% | 22.3% |
| Black Monday | 1987-08 | 1987-12 | 1989-07 | -33.5% | 101 | 600 | -20.5% | 1988-09 | 6,271 | 4.7% | -3.8% | -10.5% |
| Gulf War | 1990-07 | 1990-10 | 1991-02 | -19.9% | 87 | 125 | -13.7% | 1990-10 | 4,829 | 8.0% | -7.3% | -7.9% |
| LTCM / Russia | 1998-07 | 1998-08 | 1998-11 | -19.3% | 45 | 84 | -6.7% | 1998-08 | 48 | -6.6% | 4.5% | -6.8% |
| Dot-com | 2000-03 | 2002-10 | 2007-05 | -49.1% | 929 | 1,694 | -15.5% | 2003-04 | 167 | 12.4% | 2.1% | 15.3% |
| GFC 2008 | 2007-10 | 2009-03 | 2013-03 | -56.8% | 517 | 1,480 | -29.0% | 2008-11 | 303 | 24.9% | 7.8% | 21.6% |
| Q4 2018 (Fed) | 2018-09 | 2018-12 | 2019-04 | -19.8% | 95 | 120 | -5.1% | 2019-04 | 51 | 5.1% | 11.9% | 18.2% |
| COVID | 2020-02 | 2020-03 | 2020-08 | -33.9% | 33 | 148 | -12.3% | 2020-03 | 21 | -3.6% | 23.2% | 11.2% |
| Inflation / Fed | 2022-01 | 2022-10 | 2024-01 | -25.4% | 282 | 464 | -20.8% | 2022-09 | 220 | -7.1% | 20.4% | 11.7% |
| Tariffs 2025 | 2025-02 | 2025-04 | 2025-06 | -18.9% | 48 | 80 | -7.4% | 2025-05 | 30 | 1.7% | 33.6% | 58.2% |
Each episode: SPX and gold
Panel title: episode, year of the SPX peak and gold max drawdown inside the window.
SPX corrections overlaid
Current SPX correction: -0.1% from the 2026-10-06 peak (4 trading days). Click a legend entry to show or hide it, double-click to isolate it. Corrections smaller than 25% start hidden.
Gold max drawdown in SPX crashes
Across the 11 episodes. Recency weight = 0.5 ^ (years since the SPX peak / 15), normalized to sum 1.
| Gold drawdown | |
|---|---|
| Simple average | -19.8% |
| Recency-weighted average (half-life 15 years) | -14.9% |
| Median | -15.5% |
| 75th percentile of severity | -24.9% |
| Worst | -53.4% |
Gold drawdown scenarios
| Gold drawdown | |
|---|---|
| Recency-weighted average | -14.9% |
| 75th percentile of severity | -24.9% |
| Worst | -53.4% |
| Stress (worst x 1.25) | -66.8% |