Gold today
Gold is 22.8% below its all-time high of $5,405.00 set on 29 Jan 2026.
It is -3.2% this year and +5.0% over the last 12 months.
Price history and data healthSum of the four quadrant scores below. The model has been long gold since 08 Jul 2026.
Regime score, last 3 years
Green: Bullish (above -3). Red: Bearish. Dotted line: the threshold.
Gold thesis Long-term core holding. Judged on its drivers, monthly; separate from the regime score.
Monthly state of the secular gold thesis from its drivers (C1-C10). Governs the long-term core holding, not the tactical book.
Central bank buying, last 4 quarters (WGC). IMF-reported 12m change: +513t.
10Y TIPS yield 2.86%, change over 6 months.
DXY 102.2, change over 12 months.
From the ATH. Last month-end $4,176 vs 10-month average $4,507.
Leading lenses The four regime quadrants. Their scores add up to the regime score.
S&P 500/gold trend and S&P 500 volatility.
Gold trend and gold/silver ratio trend.
Oil trend and real rate net of productivity.
Official gold reserves trend (30-day lag) and real rate net of productivity vs its 5-year average.
Context Read beside the regime score. They do not change it.
Currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CNY) in which gold is up over 12 months: broad gains mean fiat debasement, not just a weak dollar.
Countries adding vs reducing gold over 12 months (IMF), and WGC buying not reported to the IMF over the last 4 quarters.
TradingView XAU, 14 Oct 2026. 24.6% below its peak of 3.29x (day 1,184). Earlier bull markets at day 1,443, by start year, ordered by multiple.
Cone middle $4,573 (+9.6%); odds-weighted path $4,791 (+14.8%) by 29 Sep 2027.
InHouse expected price on 29 Sep 2027 (4,791) vs the 12-month forecasts of 33 banks (Consensus Economics Sep 2026, mean 4,677). Bar: share of banks below InHouse.
Shanghai gold minus the London AM fix (12 Oct 2026): +22.12 USD per ounce, +0.53% of London. Bar: percentile of the % gap vs its history since 2010.
COMEX futures basis over spot, annualized, minus the 3-month T-bill. Bar: percentile vs its history since 2010.
Net futures position of producers, merchants, processors and users (the hedgers), CFTC report of 06 Oct 2026. Bar: percentile vs its history since 2006.
Official gold reserves of all countries reported to the IMF, change over the 12 months to Sep 2026. Bar: percentile vs every 12-month change since 1970.
Change in the 30 days to 13 Oct 2026. Bar: percentile vs every monthly change since 2003.
Gold is 81% of the 25% shadow price ($5,174) and 50% of the 40% ($8,278). Bar: share of the US monetary base that US gold covers at market price.
Sum of 7 US fiscal stress indicators (0 green, 1 amber, 2 red each); more fiscal dominance is more supportive for gold.
Reading the compass today
- Thesis Monitor. Thesis intact (provisional): 0 decisive and 0 confirming criteria red
- Bull Cycle. On day 1,443 of the bull market, gold is 2.48x its start price and 24.6% below its peak
- Regime. The regime score is 0 (Bullish) and the model is long gold
- Forecast. Offensive is the most likely 365-day zone (42%). The cone middle is $4,573 and the odds-weighted path $4,791 by 29 Sep 2027
- Consensus. Banks expect gold at 4,677 in 12 months (mean of 33, Consensus Economics Sep 2026); the InHouse expected path ends at 4,791, above 14 of them
- Markets. Gold in China is 22 USD an ounce above London, and CFTC producers are net -18,984 contracts, up from -28,275 on 08 Sep 2026
- Options. Mock-up. Gold 1-month implied volatility is 17.9% and 2-month 19.9%; the 1-month risk reversal is -0.1 vol points
- Shadow Price. Gold is 50% of the 40% shadow price ($8,278)
- Fiscal Dominance. Fiscal dominance 4 of 14: net interest takes 19.6% of federal receipts
- Equity Crash. In the 11 SPX crashes since 1971 the median gold drawdown was -15.5% (worst -53.4%); the SPX is 0.1% below its record close
Thesis state vs gold
Green Intact, yellow Under review, red Invalidated, judged at each month-end. The current month is provisional.
InHouse gold forecast: GARCH cone and expected path
Gold price cone from GARCH simulations (bands at 5%, 33%, 66% and 95%) with the expected path in blue, and the odds of each zone below. Pick a report date to see a past forecast and the price that followed.