Thesis Monitor
Thesis intact (provisional): 0 decisive and 0 confirming criteria red
Monthly state of the secular gold thesis from its drivers (C1-C10). Governs the long-term core holding, not the tactical book.
Central bank buying, last 4 quarters (WGC). IMF-reported 12m change: +513t.
10Y TIPS yield 2.86%, change over 6 months.
DXY 102.2, change over 12 months.
Federal deficit, 12 months, % of GDP. Interest / tax receipts (NIPA): 34%.
10Y term premium. 5y5y 2.34%, stock-bond correlation +0.49.
Gold ETF holdings (Bloomberg tally), +4.9% in 3 months.
SGE premium vs London, 60-day mean (20-day +0.45%).
From the ATH. Last month-end $4,176 vs 10-month average $4,507.
Productivity y/y. S&P 500/gold +8% in 12 months.
WTI.
Currencies (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CNY) in which gold is up over 12 months: broad gains mean fiat debasement, not just a weak dollar.
Countries adding vs reducing gold over 12 months (IMF), and WGC buying not reported to the IMF over the last 4 quarters.
The thesis is Intact (provisional for October 2026; September closed Intact). Red today: none. Amber: C2, C8.
Central banks bought 983t over the last 4 quarters (WGC), above the 900t line that switches on the official-sector override; about 501t of it was never reported to the IMF.
The 10Y TIPS yield is 2.86%, +98bp in 6 months (red at +100bp held 20 days): the Volcker/2013 test (C2). If it turns red, the official-sector override (on today) keeps it amber while 4-quarter central bank buying stays above 900t. A red C2 without an override moves the state to Under review.
Price (C8) is the circuit breaker: gold is -23% from its ATH and the last month-end ($4,176) was below its 10-month average ($4,507). Red needs 3 month-ends below a falling average.
Debasement: gold is up over 12 months in 4 of 5 currencies, and gold/TLT is +22%: long Treasuries are falling faster than gold. Foreign official Treasury custody at the Fed is -212bn over 52 weeks.
Thesis state vs gold
Green Intact, yellow Under review, red Invalidated, judged at each month-end. The current month is provisional.
The ten criteria today
Decisive C1-C3, confirming C4-C7 and C9, context C10, circuit breaker C8. Overrides: liquidation (HY spread > 6% or MOVE > 150, 3 months) and official sector (4-quarter central bank buying > 900t) turn a red C2 or C3 into amber.
| Class | Reading | Today | Sep 2026 close | Rule | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criterion | |||||
| C1 Official-sector bid fades | Decisive | 983t | Green | Green | Red: 4Q central bank buying < 450t for 2 quarters (WGC); before 2014, IMF-reported net sales > 100t |
| C2 Credible real-rate shock | Decisive | +98bp | Amber | Amber | Red: 10Y TIPS up >= 100bp in 6 months for 20 days. Amber: > 60bp |
| C3 New dollar bull market | Decisive | +3.3% | Green | Green | Red: DXY +12% in 12m and above a rising 40-week average for 8 weeks. Amber: +7% |
| C4 Fiscal dominance recedes | Confirming | 5.4% | Green | Green | Red: deficit < 3.5% of GDP for 12 months and interest/receipts falling y/y. Amber: < 4.5% |
| C5 Bonds hedge again (Fed credibility) | Confirming | 1.07% | Green | Green | Red: term premium < 0 and 5y5y < 2.1% for 3 months, or stock-bond correlation < -0.3 for 6 months |
| C6 Western ETF capitulation | Confirming | 3,145t | Green | Green | Red: ETF holdings -12% from 2-year peak and 2 quarters of WGC outflows. Amber: -5% in 3 months |
| C7 Eastern physical bid breaks | Confirming | +0.27% | Green | Green | Red: SGE premium, 60-day mean < -0.5%. Amber: 20-day mean < 0 |
| C8 Price structure | Circuit breaker | -22.8% | Amber | Amber | Red: 3 month-ends below a falling 10-month average, or > 30% below the ATH. Amber: below the average |
| C9 Productivity-led US outperformance | Confirming | 2.2% | Green | Green | Red: productivity > 2.5% y/y for 3 quarters and S&P 500/gold +25% in 12m |
| C10 Geopolitical premium unwinds | Context | $93 | Green | Green | Partial: WTI < $70 and -25% in 6 months (GPR index and Hormuz transits pending) |
Invalidated: 2+ decisive red, or 1 decisive + 3 confirming red, or C8 red for 6 months + any decisive red. Under review: any decisive red, 2+ confirming red, or C8 red. Thresholds and rationale: docs/gold-bull-thesis.md.
Criteria over time
Criteria in detail
Back-test: the state at every month-end since 1997
Months Intact 112, Under review 123, Invalidated 123. It uses revised data, so it is kinder than real time.
| Months (Jan to Dec) | Gold at year-end | |
|---|---|---|
| Year | ||
| 1997 | XXXXXXXXXXXX | $289 |
| 1998 | XXXXXXXXXXXX | $287 |
| 1999 | XXXXXRRRRRRR | $290 |
| 2000 | RRXXXXXXXXXX | $273 |
| 2001 | XXXXXXXXXXXX | $276 |
| 2002 | XXXXXXXXXXXX | $343 |
| 2003 | XXXXXXXXXXXX | $417 |
| 2004 | XXXXXXXXXXXX | $438 |
| 2005 | XXXXXXXXXXXX | $513 |
| 2006 | XXXRRRRRRRRR | $636 |
| 2007 | RRRRRRRRRRRR | $836 |
| 2008 | RRRRRRRRRRRR | $865 |
| 2009 | R..RR....... | $1,104 |
| 2010 | .R.......... | $1,410 |
| 2011 | ............ | $1,574 |
| 2012 | ............ | $1,664 |
| 2013 | ...R.RRRRRRR | $1,202 |
| 2014 | RRRRRRRRRRRR | $1,199 |
| 2015 | RXXXXXXRRRRR | $1,062 |
| 2016 | RRRRRR.RRRRR | $1,159 |
| 2017 | RXXXXXXXXXXX | $1,296 |
| 2018 | RRRRRRXXXXRR | $1,282 |
| 2019 | RRRRR....... | $1,523 |
| 2020 | ...RRRRRRRRR | $1,891 |
| 2021 | RRRRRRRRRR.. | $1,820 |
| 2022 | ....RR.RRRRR | $1,812 |
| 2023 | ............ | $2,062 |
| 2024 | ............ | $2,611 |
| 2025 | ............ | $4,308 |
| 2026 | .......... | $4,172 |
Read it as a test of this thesis, not of gold in general: in 2001-2008 central banks were net sellers, so this framework never called that bull Intact.
The debasement trade
Gold rising in every currency is fiat debasement; rising only in dollars is dollar weakness. TLT is price only (no coupons).
Gold in each currency
| Price | Drawdown from ATH | 12m return | ATH date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 4,172 | -22.8% | +1.9% | 2026-01-29 |
| EUR | 3,739 | -17.9% | +5.3% | 2026-03-02 |
| GBP | 3,159 | -20.4% | +2.5% | 2026-03-02 |
| JPY | 661,870 | -21.0% | +5.7% | 2026-03-02 |
| CNY | 27,926 | -25.7% | -4.4% | 2026-01-29 |
De-dollarization: who is looking for alternatives to the dollar
IMF-reported official gold (Bloomberg nnn.046 Index), WGC central bank demand, Fed custody holdings for foreign official accounts (FRED WMTSECL1) and foreign share of federal debt (FDHBFIN / GFDEBTN).
Official gold by country
IMF-reported holdings
| Tonnes | 12m change (t) | Last report | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 673 | +157.5 | 2026-09 |
| Kazakhstan | 377 | +52.7 | 2026-09 |
| China | 2,345 | +40.4 | 2026-09 |
| Brazil | 172 | +27.3 | 2026-09 |
| Czech Republic | 86 | +18.9 | 2026-09 |
| Indonesia | 87 | +6.7 | 2026-09 |
| Malaysia | 45 | +5.9 | 2026-09 |
| Philippines | 134 | +1.6 | 2026-09 |
| Egypt | 130 | +0.8 | 2026-09 |
| UAE | 75 | +0.7 | 2026-09 |
| India | 881 | +0.3 | 2026-09 |
| Japan | 846 | +0.0 | 2026-09 |
| Russia | 2,336 | +0.0 | 2024-09 |
| Hungary | 110 | +0.0 | 2026-09 |
| Saudi Arabia | 323 | +0.0 | 2026-09 |
| United States | 8,134 | +0.0 | 2026-09 |
| Qatar | 115 | -0.7 | 2026-09 |
| Germany | 3,349 | -1.0 | 2026-09 |
| Turkey | 795 | -3.6 | 2026-09 |
Evidence log (data/thesis/dedollarization_events.csv)
| country | category | direction | event | source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| date | |||||
| 2026-07-01 | United States (Florida) | gold | away from USD | Florida recognizes gold and silver as legal tender (scheduled from July 2026 per IGWT; confirm implementation) | IGWT 2026 |
| 2026-05-20 | Russia / BRICS | payments | away from USD | 'The Unit' research project: 40% gold, 60% BRICS currency basket settlement instrument (research, not an official BRICS program) | IGWT 2026 |
| 2026-05-01 | UAE | policy | unclear | UAE withdraws from OPEC; consequences for petrodollar recycling unclear | IGWT 2026 |
| 2026-03-31 | Global | payments | supports USD | Dollar stablecoin market exceeds USD 300bn: the digital dollar extends its reach | IGWT 2026 |
| 2026-03-15 | China | policy | away from USD | 15th Five-Year Plan codifies monetary independence as a national security priority (date approximate: NPC session) | IGWT 2026 |
| 2025-12-31 | Private (Tether) | gold | away from USD | Tether buys 27 t of gold in Q4/2025 and holds about 150 t: a gold-backed private settlement layer outside the banking system | IGWT 2026 |
| 2025-12-01 | United States | debasement | away from USD | Fed ends QT; balance sheet grows about USD 175bn to USD 6.7trn by April 2026 under 'reserve management' | IGWT 2026 |
| 2025-09-30 | China | reserves | supports USD | Renminbi share of global reserves down to 2.1% from a 2.84% peak (Q1/2022): no sovereign currency is replacing the dollar | IGWT 2026 |
| 2025-09-30 | Global | reserves | away from USD | USD share of global FX reserves at 56.9%, roughly a 30-year low (partly FX valuation) | IGWT 2026 (IMF COFER Q3/2025) |
| 2025-08-31 | United States | gold | away from USD | Federal Reserve publishes 'Official Reserve Revaluations: The International Experience' | IGWT 2026 |
| 2025-07-18 | United States | payments | supports USD | GENIUS Act signed: Treasury-backed dollar stablecoins get a federal framework, extending dollar reach | Public record |
| 2025-04-30 | Global | markets | away from USD | DXY sustainably breaks below 100 for the first time in years | IGWT 2026 |
| 2024-12-31 | Global | reserves | away from USD | Gold's share of international reserves surpasses US Treasuries for the first time since the mid-1990s | IGWT 2026 |
| 2024-11-07 | China | gold | away from USD | PBoC resumes reported gold purchases after a six-month pause | Public record (PBoC reserve data) |
| 2024-10-31 | BIS | payments | unclear | BIS exits mBridge, leaving the platform to its participant central banks | Public record |
| 2024-06-05 | Saudi Arabia | payments | away from USD | Saudi Central Bank joins mBridge, the multi-CBDC cross-border settlement platform | Public record |
| 2024-05-31 | India | gold | away from USD | RBI repatriates about 100 t of gold from the Bank of England to India | Public record |
| 2023-07-15 | India / UAE | trade | away from USD | India and UAE sign framework to settle trade in rupees and dirhams | Public record |
| 2023-03-29 | China / Brazil | trade | away from USD | China and Brazil agree to settle bilateral trade in their own currencies | Public record |
| 2022-03-12 | EU / Russia | payments | away from USD | Selected Russian banks cut off from SWIFT; Russia shifts trade settlement toward RUB and CNY | Public record |
| 2022-02-28 | G7 / EU | sanctions | away from USD | Bank of Russia FX reserves frozen after the invasion of Ukraine: dollar reserves now carry confiscation risk (the catalyst of the post-2022 central bank gold regime) | Public record; IGWT 2026 |
Exit by success: Dow / gold
The thesis can also end by being priced: the 1980 top came with Dow/gold near 1.3.