Bull Cycle
On day 1,443 of the bull market, gold is 2.48x its start price and 24.6% below its peak
The current bull market is counted from 01 Nov 2022, a start date set by hand.
Its peak so far is 3.29x the start price, on day 1,184.
On day 1,443 the 5 earlier bull markets were between 1.37x and 5.69x their start price, and 3 of them were below the current 2.48x.
Their worst drawdown up to that day was between -17.4% and -44.5%, and the current bull market's worst drawdown is -26.6%.
Cumulative multiple per bull market
Gold price (TradingView daily close, weekend and holiday gaps filled by interpolation) divided by its price on the start date, log scale. First 3,600 days (about 10 years); zoom out to see the full windows. Start dates are set by hand. Each window runs until the next start date, so the earlier ones include the decline after their peak.
Peak multiple of each bull market
Highest price in each window divided by the price on its start date.
| Peak multiple | |
|---|---|
| Starts in 1970 Jan | 5.52x |
| Starts in 1976 Aug | 7.35x |
| Starts in 2000 Jan | 2.48x |
| Starts in 2007 Jan | 2.97x |
| Starts in 2015 Dec | 1.93x |
| Starts in 2022 Nov | 3.29x |
Drawdown distribution per bull market
Kernel density of the daily drawdown from the running high of each window (Scott bandwidth). Each density has area 1. Dashed line: the current bull market today.
Drawdown from the running high
First 3,600 days (about 10 years).